A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
