Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
